أربعة سيناريوهات ممكنة بشأن ليبيا

[نبيل عزاب]

أربعة سيناريوهات ممكنة بشأن ليبياقالت صحيفة تايمز البريطانية إن إرث مجنون ليبيا سيكون طويلا ومؤلما، متسائلة عن طبيعة النهاية التي قد تتمخض عنها الأزمة التي تشهدها البلاد في ظل الثورة الشعبية التي تنادي بإسقاط المجنون.
وبينما أشارت تايمز إلى أن المجتمع الدولي يتطلع إلى طرق يكون من شأنها إجبار المجنون على التنحي عن منصبه، أوضحت أن الثورة الشعبية الليبية تختلف عن سابقتيها في تونس ومصر، وأنها لن تكون سريعة ولا سلمية أو حاسمة.
وترى الصحيفة أن هناك أربعة سيناريوهات ممكنة بشأن ليبيا، أفضلها -الذي يمنع حدوث مزيد من المذابح- يتمثل في إسقاط المجنون ورحيله إلى خارج البلاد، وهذا ما نادى به البيت الأبيض الأميركي ولاقى صدى واضحا لدى رئيس الوزراء البريطاني وزعماء غربيين آخرين.
ولكن سيناريو رحيل المجنون الطريق مسدود أمامه في ظل رفضه التنحي وإصراره على البقاء في ليبيا واستعداده للموت، في ما يصفه مراقبون بجنون العظمة الذي يعاني منه، إضافة إلى عدم وجود أي بلاد عربية يمكنها استقباله.
وأشارت تايمز إلى أن زيمبابوي ربما يمكنها استقبال المجنون في ظل تزويده لرئيسها روبرت موغابي بالنفط والدعم المالي.
وأما السيناريو الثاني فيتمثل في احتمال تحقيق انتصار عسكري للثوار يؤدي إلى تحريرهم طرابلس وبالتالي اعتقال المجنون أو مقتله، ولكن هذا ربما غير ممكن في ظل عدم وجود سلاح كاف بأيدي الثوار وبعد المسافة بين بنغازي -معقل الثورة- وطرابلس والبالغة قرابة 960 كلم، فضلا عن التحصين العسكري حول العاصمة.
كما أن قيام انتفاضة احتجاجية عارمة داخل طرابلس أمر غير ممكن، باستثناء إحدى ضواحيها الشرقية تاجوراء.
أما السيناريو الثالث فيتمثل في احتمال انقسام ليبيا إلى قسمين أو ثلاثة، وهو الحاصل الآن.
وبشأن الإطاحة بمجنون ليبيا بتدخل خارجي فلا تبدو محتملة، إذ أقصى ما قد يفعله حلف شمال الأطلسي والأمم المتحدة ربما هو فرض حظر جوي فوق سماء ليبيا، وهذا من شأنه مساعدة الثوار على الأرض.
وأما السيناريو الأمثل فربما يتمثل في استخدام قوات عسكرية لحصار ليبيا لأسابيع أو شهور، بحيث يتآكل نظام المجنون بشكل تدريجي وينهار اقتصاد البلاد في ظل العقوبات الاقتصادية وحظر تصدير البترول وبالتالي نقص المواد الغذائية، بحيث تتفاقم حالة من عدم الرضا حتى بين الموالين للمجنون.
ومن ينتصر في نهاية المطاف؟ هذا أمر لا يمكن تخمينه، لكن المجنون سيترك إرثا ثقيلا مؤلما قد لا يتمكن الليبيون معه لأجيال قادمة من علاج جروح خلفها على مدار 42 عاما من الدكتاتورية.

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