مخاطر التدخل العسكري في ليبيا

[نبيل عزاب]

مخاطر التدخل العسكري في ليبيا

في استعراض للقوة أعادت الولايات المتحدة نشر سفنها الحربية في البحر المتوسط وأكدت على تفكيرها الجاد لفرض منطقة حظر طيران. لكن رغم الدعوات لمثل هذه الخطوة من شخصيات، بمن فيهم السيناتور الجمهوري جون ماكين، يظل القادة الأميركيون الذين لهم قوات منتشرة بالفعل في أفغانستان ومنطقة الخليج حذرين من المزيد من التورط.
ويقول مسؤولون غربيون إن الحكومات تحاول تحقيق توازن بين تأمين ما يكفي من الدعم الإنساني في حال سقوط آلاف القتلى وتفادي التورط في نزاع يمكن أن يثير مرة أخرى شبح تدخل أميركي أخرق في الشرق الأوسط.
ومما لا شك فيه أنه بالنظر إلى القدرات فإن الولايات المتحدة وأوروبا لديهما مجموعة من الخيارات للتدخل في بلد على الشواطئ الجنوبية للبحر المتوسط.
فمنطقة حظر طيران على سبيل المثال تمثل إمكانية عملية باعتبار قرب ليبيا من القواعد الأميركية وحلف شمال الأطلسي (ناتو) في أنحاء جنوب أوروبا. لكن ليبيا أيضا منطقة واسعة وهذا ما يجعل مراقبة مجالها الجوي تحديا ماليا وإستراتيجيا.
ويقول المسؤولون إن إقامة منطقة حظر جوي ستتطلب أولا ضرب الدفاعات الجوية للنظام وليبيا تحتفظ بنحو 216 صاروخ أرض جو وهذا يمكن أن يؤدي إلى وفيات مدنية.
الضربات الجوية يمكن أن يستغلها الدكتاتور الليبي بما يسمح له بتصوير نفسه ضحية للولايات المتحدة والعدوان الغربي بدلا من ثورة داخلية. وهذه هي بالضبط النتيجة التي لا يريدها الغرب.
كما أن خيار تسليح المعارضة في الشرق -المقترح الذي أثاره رئيس الوزراء البريطاني ديفد كاميرون هذا الأسبوع- محفوف بالمخاطر أيضا.
وكما يقول جيمس هاكيت من المعهد الدولي للدراسات الإستراتيجية "المشكلة هنا هي أنك يجب أن تسأل نفسك ستسلح من؟ لأنك من المحتمل أن تتعامل مع مجموعة مختلفة من القبائل والمجتمعات التي لديها أجندات مختلفة تماما قد تبرز بمجرد رحيل القذافي".
والتداعيات السياسية للتدخل كبيرة أيضا، وخاصة أن ذكرى الغزو الأميركي للعراق ما زالت ماثلة في أذهان الأميركيين والعرب. وقد أصرت الجامعة العربية أمس على رفض "أي تدخل عسكري أجنبي" في ليبيا.
ومعارضة روسيا لمنطقة حظر جوي تعني أنها لن تكون مشمولة بقرار من مجلس الأمن. ومعارضة فرنسا وتركيا، في نفس الوقت، تترك الولايات المتحدة وبريطانيا تقودان وتراقبان منطقة حظر الطيران بدلا من الناتو.
ويقول محللون آخرون إن أميركا وبريطانيا قد تُضطران إلى المزيد من العمل العسكري القوي إذا ما أوقع مجنون ليبيا خسائر فادحة على الأرض، وهو ما يثير غضبا دوليا ويشكل ضغطا على الحكومات للتحرك.

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