الصين قد تراجع سياسة الطفل الواحد

[نبيل عزاب]

الصين قد تراجع سياسة الطفل الواحد

http://www.aljazeera.net/mritems/images/2008/9/16/1_845418_1_34.jpg
تحول قريب في سياسة الطفل الواحد بالصين

تزايد عدد المسنين في الصين بنحو أكثر من تعداد سكان إسبانيا على مدار السنوات العشر الماضية وهو ما يزيد الضغط على العاصمة بكين لتتخلى عن سياسة الطفل الواحد التي ساهمت في شيخوخة المجتمع بسرعة.
وذكرت فايننشال تايمز أن الصين كشفت النقاب عن نتائج إحصاء سكاني جديد يوم أمس بينت أن عدد الأشخاص فوق سن الستين ازداد بنحو 48 مليونا أي بنسبة 13.3% من السكان. وقبل عشر سنوات كانت النسبة أكثر من عشر السكان فقط. ويقدر مجموع سكان الصين حاليا بـ1.339 مليار نسمة، بزيادة 5.84% عن العقد الماضي.
وقال رئيس معهد بحوث السكان والتنمية في جامعة نانكاي، لي جيانمين، إن الإحصاء الرسمي للسكان أثار نقاشا بشأن مدى حاجة مراقبة السكان للتكيف مع الأوضاع. وأضاف أنه سيكون هناك خطوات من الحكومة لحل هذه المسألة قريبا جدا.
وتأكيدا على مجتمع المسنين كشف الإحصاء السكاني أيضا أن الأطفال دون سن 14 يشكلون أقل من سدس السكان، انخفاضا من الربع تقريبا قبل عشر سنوات. وأكد أيضا على السرعة التي تتمدن بها الصين، حيث أن عدد أولئك الذين يعيشون في المدن والقرى قفز إلى نحو 50% من نحو الثلث فقط في عام 2000.
وحث الرئيس الصيني هو جينتاوالمسؤولين هذا الأسبوع على تحسين سياسة السكان الحالية قائلا إن على الحكومة أن تتبنى أنظمة ووسائل مراقبة سكانية مبتكرة. ويشار إلى أن سياسة الطفل الواحد كان معمولا بها منذ ثلاثة عقود.
وقال خبراء إنه نظرا لأن تطبيق سياسة الطفل الواحد يختلف عبر الدولة المترامية الأطراف -حيث تستطيع الأسر القروية على سبيل المثال أن يكون لديها طفلان- فإن تعديلات طفيفة يمكن أن تسمح لبكين بطريقة غير رسمية بإلغاء هذه السياسة.
يذكر أن بكين كانت قد كشفت النقاب في السابق عن معدل خصوبة إجمالي مستهدف -أي متوسط عدد الأطفال الذين تلدهم المرأة خلال حياتها- قدره 1.8. وبحسب خبراء التعداد الذين أعدوا الإحصاء الرسمي فإن معدل الخصوبة الإجمالي يقف عند 1.7.
من جانبه جادل رئيس مركز بروكينغز تسينغاو، وانغ فنغ بأن الآثار الجانبية لآليات السكان الصينية، مثل الشيخوخة السريعة ستفوق قريبا الفوائد التي هيمنت في الماضي.
وقال إن انكماش القوة العاملة الشابة في الصين يعني أن البلد سيضطر إلى استبدال صناعة التصدير المنخفضة التكلفة بنموذج اقتصادي أعلى يحركه الاستهلاك المحلي.
وأكد وانغ فنغ أيضا أنه يجب على بكين أن توسع شبكة تأمينها الاجتماعي حيث أن رعاية المسنين باتت عبئا ثقيلا جدا على الجيل الأصغر نسبيا.
يشار إلى أن الصين ما زالت أكثر دول العالم سكانا، لكن زيادة السكان الإجمالية البالغة 5.8% -نحو 74 مليون نسمة- خلال العقد الماضي كانت تقريبا نصف السرعة المسجلة في الإحصاء السابق في سنة 2000.

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