التطورات المحتملة للمشهد اليمني

[نبيل عزاب]

التطورات المحتملة للمشهد اليمني

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الدخان يعلو أحياء في صنعاء إثر اشتباكات بين قوات الرئيس وقوات الشيخ الأحمر

يتفاقم الوضع الأمني فياليمن يوما بعد يوم مما يستلزم تدخلا سياسيا إقليميا جديدا وتحديدا من السعودية في ظل الاحتقان السائد وعدم قدرة المعارضة على إحداث التغيير المنشود على الأرض.

فقد أوضحت ورقة تحليلية لريفا بالا -الخبيرة في شؤون الشرق الأوسط بمعهد ستراتفور الأميركي للدراسات الاستخباراتية- أن المشهد السياسي في اليمن دخل مرحلة الجمود مع تحول الوضع إلى ساحات للقتال بين القوات الموالية للرئيس علي عبد الله صالح ونظيرتها الموالية للشيخ صادق الأحمر.

في هذه الأثناء، تسعى السعودية -وفقا للخبيرة الأميركية- إلى منع تدهور الأوضاع وصولا إلى حرب أهلية شاملة مع الإشارة إلى أن المهمة لا تبدو سهلة لأن أطراف الصراع دخلت في مجال الاقتتال القبلي وهي أزمة مرشحة للتصاعد ما لم يتم العثور على حل سياسي.


وتلفت الورقة التحليلية إلى صعوبة التعرف على حقيقة الأوضاع الميدانية في اليمن، مشيرة إلى أن قوات المعارضة الموالية للشيخ الأحمر أعلنت قبل يومين عن انشقاقات كبيرة في صفوف قوات النخبة الموالية للرئيس صالح والمقصود بها الحرس الجمهوري -التي يقودها احمد علي عبد الله صالح نجل الرئيس- لكن الوقائع على الأرض أكدت عدم دقة الأرقام المعلن عنها، مما يعكس حقيقة بقاء الجزء الأكبر من هذه القوات في صف الرئيس.

وفي قراءة لهذه المعطيات وتطوراتها المستقبلية، تتوجه الأنظار إلى الرياض التي تبدو قلقة من تداعيات الأزمة اليمنية على حدودها الجنوبية حيث تشير الباحثة بالا عن وجود مساع سعودية لمنع تطور الأحداث في اليمن إلى حرب أهلية تقوم على أساس قبلي لا أحد يستطيع التكهن بنتائجها.


وتنطلق المساعي السعودية بالأساس من حالة الإحباط والاستياء الشديد من فشل المبادرة الخليجية لحل الأزمة التي دخلت الآن في مرحلة ما يعرف يمنيا باسم "العرف القبلي" والذي لا يبدو قويا لعدة أسباب أهمها وجود بعض الأطراف غير القابلة سواء للحل السياسي أو الحل القبلي.


وبحسب بالا، يمكن تلخيص الوضع الراهن في اليمين في نقطتين أساسيتين أولاهما أن المعارضة لم تعد تقبل بالمبادرة الخليجية، في الوقت الذي لم يعد الرئيس صالح مقتنعا بالضمانات التي أعطيت له لتجنيبه وأسرته أي ملاحقات بعد تنحيه بعد أن أصبح العرف القبلي فيما يتعلق باستحقاق الثأر أو دفع الدية واقعا قائما لا يمكن تجاهله.

وتشدد على أن دخول العرف القبلي طرفا في النزاع السياسي أصبح عاملا مساعدا على تطويل الأزمة وتعقيدها كونه يمس نسيجا اجتماعيا وثقافيا متراكما عبر سنوات لا يمكن لوثيقة سياسية أن تلغيه أيا كانت ضماناتها.

ومع استمرار هذا الصراع الدامي الذي يسعى فيه الطرفان للسيطرة على العاصمة، تتعرض الدولة بمفهومها المؤسساتي والرسمي لحالة من التفكك والانهيار في أنحاء متفرقة من الجمهورية اليمنية.


والدليل على ذلك -تقول بالا- ما حصل في زنجبار من سيطرة مسلحين ينتمون لتنظيم القاعدة في شبه الجزيرة العربية في الوقت الذي تصر المعارضة على أن النظام يحاول اللعب بورقة القاعدة لإقناع المجتمع الدولي بالتداعيات المحتملة لتنحيته من السلطة على جهود مكافحة الإرهاب.

بيد أن ما تفرزه الوقائع على الأرض في الجنوب اليمني لا تدعم هذه الاتهامات بشكل كبير حيث سجلت الدوائر الأمنية الخارجية تصاعدا كبيرا في نشاط مسلحي القاعدة في الجنوب.

وما يزيد الوضع خطورة أن الصدام المسلح الذي يهدد وجود الدولة قد يدفع بجماعات أخرى لتصفية حسابات قديمة وتحقيق أهداف معلنة كما هو الحال مع جماعة الحوثي في الشمال وقوى الحراك الجنوبي المطالبة بعودة ما يسمى اليمن الجنوبي.

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