حزب الله لا يستبعد تنفيذ انقلاب عسكري إذا ..................

[نبيل عزاب]

حزب الله لا يستبعد تنفيذ انقلاب عسكري إذا سقط الأسد

تبدي أوساط قريبة من حزب الله في لبنان خشيتها من تفاقم الأوضاع بسوريا، والوصول الى مرحلة سقوط نظام الأسد الحليف الاستراتيجي لإيران وبطبيعة الحال لحزب الله.

ورغم التطمينات التي يحاول الأمين العام لحزب الله السيد حسن نصرالله؛ في كل إطلالة له منذ بدء الأزمة السورية من إشاعتها لدى مناصريه إلا أن الحديث في الغرف المغلقة؛ يختلف تماما عما يحاول نصرالله إشاعته لقاعدته الشعبية.

وكشفت مصادر قريبة من حزب الله أن تطورات الاحتجاجات في سوريا؛ لا سيما بعد قرار تعليق عضوية سوريا في الجامعة العربية دفعت بمجلس شورى القرار -وهو أعلى سلطة قيادية في حزب الله- إلى البدء في درس الخيارات المتاحة لمواجهة المرحلة المقبلة وتأثيراتها على مختلف القوى السياسية والشعبية في لبنان.

وبحسب تلك المصادر فإن هناك عدة سيناريوهات يتم تداولها، ومنها ما يقوم على بدء بتحرك ميداني سريع؛ يشبه تماما ما حصل في السابع من ماي عام 2007، لكن على نطاق أوسع بما يشبه انقلابا عسكريا، وذلك وفقا لخطة سبق أن تم الاتفاق عليها بالتنسيق مع أطراف داخلية حليفة وموالية للحزب.

وتابعت تلك المصادر: "في اللحظة التي يشعر فيها حزب الله أن سقوط نظام الأسد قد بات وشيكا نتيجة للتحركات الشعبية أو جراء تدخل عسكري أجنبي، فإن مجموعات عسكرية تابعة له؛ ستباشر بالتحرك السريع للسيطرة على بيروت في شقيها الغربي والشرقي بالتنسيق الكامل مع حزب التيار الوطني الحر بزعامة العماد ميشيل عون، وتحت عنوان (حماية المقاومة؛ وسلاحها من جهات لبنانية داخلية)، حيث سيقول الحزب إن هذا التحرك جاء لمواجهة تلك القوى الداخلية التي كانت تتحضر لمحاصرة المقاومة بالتنسيق مع جهات خارجية وعلى رأسها إسرائيل التي ستستغل سقوط النظام السوري للانقضاض على حزب الله عبر شن حرب عليه على الجبهة الجنوبية".

وأكدت تلك المصادر: "أن ذلك السيناريو سوف يبرر اللجوء الى كافة الوسائل التي من شأنها حماية هذا السلاح والدفاع عنه رغم الأضرار والضحايا التي ستخلفها عملية من هذا النوع والتي قد تؤدي إلى حرب أهلية".



غير أن تلك المصادر تحدثت عن وجود: "تيار فاعل داخل حزب الله يرفض هذا التوجه ويدعو الى مواجهة المرحلة بواقعية أكثر؛ باعتماد لغة الحوار الداخلي؛ مع كافة الأطراف اللبنانية المعارضة لمشروع الحزب ورؤيته للقضايا اللبنانية والإقليمية على قاعدة تأخذ في عين الاعتبار التهديدات الإسرائيلية الدائمة للبنان. لكن هذا الرأي تعارضه القيادات العسكرية والأمنية داخل الحزب؛ والتي تربطها علاقة مباشرة بقيادة الحرس الثوري الإيراني".

وأوضحت المصادر أن: "قيادة حزب الله التي بدأت تستشعر الخطر الداهم؛ القادم من سوريا على مشروعه المرتبط استراتيجيا بالمشروع الإيراني ربما يعتبر نفسه في حالة حرب غير معلنة عليه وعلى سلاحه وأن كل الخيارات تبقى مفتوحة أمامه وهو بات يعيش هاجسا وخطرا لا يقل شأنا عن خطر الحرب الذي خاضها في جويلية2006".

وفي سياق متصل، ترى مصادر أخرى قريبة من حزب الله: "أن سقوط نظام الأسد ستكون له تداعياته الكبيرة على لبنان، وبالتالي فإن هناك قياديين في الحزب على قناعة تامة بوجود مخطط إسرائيلي؛ يقضي بشن حرب ضارية على حزب الله لإنهاكه عسكريا وفق خطة تقضي بفتح جبهة الجنوب اللبناني بالتزامن مع تحرك جهات لبنانية من قوى الرابع عشر من آذار لمحاصرة حزب الله وعناصره في بيروت وبعض المناطق الخاضعة لسيطرته".

بالمقابل قالت مصادر في قوى الرابع عشر من آذار إن ما يجري تناوله من سيناريوهات قد يلجأ إليها حزب الله غير قابلة للتطبيق، مشددة في الوقت نفسه على عدم وجود مخاطر أمنية على لبنان إذا سقط النظام في سوريا.

وزادت: "حزب الله ليس قادرا على احتلال بيروت عسكريا لأنه لا يستطيع أن يستثمر تفوقه العسكري سياسيا؛ بالإضافة أنه ليس من مصلحة إيران خسارة أوراقها في لبنان.

[the.edge]

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